Case Study 02

The "Oracle" Ensemble

Moving beyond simple thresholds: Using Stacked Machine Learning to filter market noise and predict trade outcomes.

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The Stacked Architecture

Traditional bots use a single "Buy/Sell" check. The Oracle uses a Two-Layer Approach. Layer 1 asks specific questions (Will it break even? How long will it take?). Layer 2 (The Meta-Learner) listens to these experts to make the final call.

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Raw Input

19 Technical Features
(RSI, MACD, ADX...)

Model A
Breakeven?
Probability Check
Model B
Duration?
Time Regression
Model C
ROI %?
Profit Regression
Model D
Risk:Reward?
Ratio Prediction
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Meta-Learner

Analyzes Raw Data + Layer 1 Opinions

Decision: TRADE

Filtering the Noise

By using the ensemble, we sacrifice raw trade volume for significantly higher precision. The Stacked model filters out "fakeouts" that fool standard indicators.

What Matters to the Oracle?

The Meta-Learner (Layer 2) prioritizes the predictions of Layer 1 over raw indicators. It cares more about "Predicted Probability of Breakeven" than the raw RSI value.

Visualizing the Decision Boundary

Single models create simple linear cutoffs (e.g., "If RSI > 70, Sell"). The Stacked Ensemble creates a complex, non-linear 3D shape. In this plot, teal areas represent high-confidence "Trade" zones, found only where Breakeven Probability is high AND Duration is optimal, regardless of other noise.

Figure 3: 3D Visualization of the Meta-Learner's decision space (Z-Axis: Trade Confidence)
Cross-Industry Application

From Trading to ICU Triage

The logic of "Auxiliary Tasks" (Layer 1) feeding a "Final Decision" (Layer 2) is perfectly suited for medical environments where resources are scarce and false positives are dangerous.

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Financial Context

The Goal Capital Allocation (Execute Trade)
Layer 1 (Auxiliary):
Predict Breakeven, Duration, ROI
Layer 2 (Decision):
"Is this signal worth the risk?"
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Medical Triage Context

The Goal Resource Allocation (ICU Bed)
Layer 1 (Auxiliary):
Predict Sepsis, Kidney Failure, Length of Stay
Layer 2 (Decision):
"Does this patient need immediate ICU?"